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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model