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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.72 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP