4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model