Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model