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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model