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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model