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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP