Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 98

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.06 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 98, worth -6.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model