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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model