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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP