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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model