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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP