Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Brock Purdy (SF): +0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 6
WAS
SF
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:58 TD SF (10:58) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – SF 6
- Q1 08:53 FG WAS (8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – SF 7
- Q1 04:11 TD SF (4:11) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – SF 13
- Q2 00:18 TD SF (:18) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play. WAS 3 – SF 19
- Q3 06:01 FG SF (6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. WAS 3 – SF 23
- Q3 00:18 TD WAS (:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [6-M.Mustapha]. WAS 9 – SF 23
- Q4 09:26 TD WAS (9:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-R.White for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – SF 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%
(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%
(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 61%
(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 20 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%
(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 17 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 80 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
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