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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 33

Washington Commanders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP