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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 89

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.20 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP