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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP