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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 31

Washington Commanders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model