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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 3
San Francisco 49ers 13 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).
The Three Options
GO
+4.35 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.29 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.28 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
- 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
