Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 82

Washington Commanders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.33 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model