Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 62

Washington Commanders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model