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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.58 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model