Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 61

Washington Commanders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model