4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 13

Washington Commanders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model