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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 17

Washington Commanders 17 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model