Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Washington Commanders 17

(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model