Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model