Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.22 EP
54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model