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Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US
☀️ Clear
Spread 3.5
O/U 50.5
Win Probability
Clear
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.142 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback
- TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
TB
23
–
CIN
25
Projected margin: CIN by 2
Projected total: 48
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.