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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-1 HC Todd Bowles
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Cincinnati Bengals

1-0 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

TB
32.6%
CIN
67.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.142 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 22 15–29
–
CIN 25 18–32
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Justin Skule T Doubtful Oblique
Sean Tucker RB Doubtful Hamstring
Jalen McMillan WR Doubtful Knee
Christian Rozeboom LB Questionable Foot

CIN

Shemar Stewart DE Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 27
–
CIN 33

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:12 FG TB (9:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – CIN 0
  • Q1 06:29 TD CIN (6:29) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-M.Murphy and 49-B.Carter). FUMBLES (99-M.Murphy) [49-B.Carter], touched at TB 26, RECOVERED by CIN-44-D.Knight at TB 27. 44-D.Knight for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CIN 6
  • Q1 01:51 TD CIN (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 05:35 TD CIN (5:35) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CIN 20
  • Q2 01:54 TD TB (1:54) 7-B.Irving left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – CIN 21
  • Q2 00:10 FG CIN (:10) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. TB 10 – CIN 24
  • Q3 10:08 FG CIN (10:08) 2-E.McPherson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. TB 10 – CIN 27
  • Q3 03:46 FG TB (3:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 13 – CIN 27
  • Q3 02:24 TD TB (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 45-J.Trotter [50-V.Vea] at CIN 38. 45-J.Trotter for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – CIN 27
  • Q4 14:09 FG CIN (14:09) 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. TB 20 – CIN 30
  • Q4 05:23 FG CIN (5:23) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. TB 20 – CIN 33
  • Q4 03:25 TD TB (3:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – CIN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (9:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:49) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-46-W.Wagner. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (47-S.Bozeman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (:10) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%

    (10:08) 2-E.McPherson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (3:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (14:09) 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (5:23) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →