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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 2-E.McPherson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model