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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.37 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP