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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-46-W.Wagner. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (47-S.Bozeman).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model