4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model