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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP