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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 30 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model