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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP