4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Wednesday 2026-09-09 · 20:20 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NE
36.7%
SEA
63.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.