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New England Patriots

0-1 HC Mike Vrabel
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Seattle Seahawks

1-0 HC Mike Macdonald
Wednesday 2026-09-09 · 20:20 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NE
36.0%
SEA
64.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 23 16–30
–
SEA 25 18–32
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

NE

Ben Brown C Out Knee
TreVeyon Henderson RB Out Ankle

SEA

Ty Okada S Out Hamstring
Tory Horton WR Questionable Hamstring
Nick Emmanwori S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:14 TD NE (9:14) 70-G.Van Roten reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – SEA 0
  • Q3 11:53 FG NE (11:53) 8-A.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NE 10 – SEA 0
  • Q3 03:16 FG SEA (3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NE 10 – SEA 3
  • Q4 11:38 TD SEA (11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – SEA 9
  • Q4 05:53 FG SEA (5:53) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NE 10 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (11:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:35) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:28) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (4:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%

    (:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to SEA 7, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 77%

    (11:53) 8-A.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (9:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-33-V.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 48, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to NE 43 for 9 yards (48-N.Obiazor; 91-E.Ponder).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 45%

    (11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:53) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →