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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 5 at the 50
Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(4:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.14 EP
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.16 EP
- 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK
-1.29 EP
- 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 68% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
