Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 55

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(7:35) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.56 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model