Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 0

(11:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.70 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -1.18 EP

30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
70% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model