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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 94

New England Patriots 10 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 48, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to NE 43 for 9 yards (48-N.Obiazor; 91-E.Ponder).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 94, worth -5.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model