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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 47

New England Patriots 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model