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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 45
Seattle Seahawks 3 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.75 EP
- 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP
KICK
-0.80 EP
- 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
- 55% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
