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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 65

New England Patriots 10 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.50 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model