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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP