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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model