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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-33-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model