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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 60

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP