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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 47

New England Patriots 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to SEA 7, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP