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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 32

New England Patriots 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 8-A.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model