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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model